Michael Orr's favorite charts for monitoring the market are:
How Is The Phoenix Market Doing?
Days Inventory by Price Range
December 29 - The last Cromford® Market Index table of 2016 paints a pretty picture for the majority of the market, with 11 out of 17 cities improving their balance in the seller's favor.
The top 8 cities have all seen an improving situation for sellers over the last month thanks to a significant fall in active listings. The Southeast Valley is a great spot for sellers with Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa and Tempe taking 4 of the top 6 spots and on an improving trend, especially for Tempe.
However we still have none of the 17 largest cities below 100, the neutral point.
April 10 - In some parts of the valley, the market is so hot that a few people have been drawing parallels with 2005 and expressing fear of a bubble. While I agree that the Southeast Valley, Pinal County and parts of the Northwest Valley are much hotter than they have been for a while, the market is more akin to 2013 than 2005.
I think some people forget quite how ridiculous 2005 was. It was exactly 12 years ago that:
The Greater Phoenix market has a long way to go before conditions get bubbly, and we should remember how few skeptics there were in 2005 that the market could ever go down. Now there are skeptics everywhere, which is a very good reason that another bubble is unlikely to develop. The next housing bubble is likely once everyone who experienced the last one has retired or passed away..
DREW & BETSY.
December 13 - I am looking at how the Southeast Valley and Pinal County are improving for sellers compared with the rest of the market. From the chart below you can see that the overall market saw a slight decline in active listings between December 1, 2015 and December 1, 2016. The quarterly sales rate for September through November was 16% stronger in 2016 than 2015. The Southeast Valley had the strongest increase in sales rate at 20%, while Phoenix & the North Valley had the weakest at 10%. The big difference for the Southeast Valley is the dramatic 12% fall in active listings since 12 months ago. In contrast the West Valley has seen a strong increase of 7%.
From a seller's perspective, the Southeast Valley is significantly out-performing the overall market, as is Pinal County, though to a lesser degree. The West Valley has weakened because of increased inventory while the Northeast Valley, Phoenix and the North Valley are slightly under-performing the sales growth seen in the overall market."
The following line chart plots the Cromford Market Index™ on a daily basis for the last 120 days for the 12 major cities. 100 is a balanced market. >100 favors Sellers, <100 favors Buyers.
Cromford Monthly Report
SRES® PSA SFR®
March 17 - There are 11 markets that are improving for sellers and only 6 deteriorating. Overall this is a positive move in four weeks.
January 11 - Noting strength in the Southeast Valley for the past few months, underscored by the high end market over $500,000. Comparing average price per square foot for the fourth quarter of 2016 with the fourth quarter of 2015, we see the following impressive price advances:
Mesa 85213 - up 34% to $168.45
Scottsdale 85251 - up 18% to $362.27
Tempe 85284 - up 15% to $196.85
Mesa 85207 - up 11% to $176.55
The buying public appeared to be giving more respect to some of the lesser known luxury locations, such as Mesa's Citrus Area (85213), Las Sendas (85207), South Tempe.
April 14 - This is the time of year when pricing tends to make its major move - the second quarter. Yesterday the average price per square foot for all areas & types reached $150 for the first time since March 2008. This is a rise of 2.5% in just one month. By the time we get to late June, it is likely that the current momentum will have waned and we anticipate a sideways move or even a moderate retreat during the third quarter, followed by another recovery in the fourth quarter. Greater Phoenix's seasonal pattern is well established, but given the supply shortages it is not surprising that annual appreciation is nearly 7% at the middle of April.
Rental Pricing: Southeast Valley Single Family Homes
March 16 - The Cromford® Market Index for all areas and types has been extremely stable over the last few weeks, holding a tight range between 144.4 and 145.0. The supply index is unchanged at 72.9 since February 27 while the demand index has hovered between 105.3 and 105.5. At the moment this lack of direction means sellers remain in charge across much of the market. Although average sales price per square foot has changed little since January, we are seeing a rise in the pending average $/SF, which has just climbed over $151 for the first time since March 2008. This suggests we are likely to see the usual second quarter rise in average sales prices start to make its move very shortly.
Notable Current Cromford Report Data -- Southeast Valley 4/19
Planning to buy in the Southeast Valley in 2017? Dont delay, prices continue to rise.
Southeast Valley Luxury Market Update
Is it a buyer or sellers market?
Monthly Rent Report
December 3 - Days of inventory for all areas & types has dropped sharply in the last week thanks to a lot of active listings disappearing at the end of November. We currently have a reading of just over 100, down from 109 this time last year and 131 in 2014. We note the increases in inventory under $125K, between $600K and $800K and over $3 Million. Looking best from a seller's perspective are the lower inventory level between $150K and $600K and between $2 Million and $3 Million.
April 18 - Easiest areas to sell homes. - Listing Success Rate
March 14 - Based on the current number of active listings (excluding UCB and CCBS listings) and the annual sales rate, here are the ZIP codes with the least supply in the Greater Phoenix area (all dwelling types included).
El Mirage 85335 - 24 days
Mesa 85210 - 28 days
Chandler 85224 - 32 days
Mesa 85202 - 32 days
Youngtown 85363 - 33 days
Chandler 85225 - 34 days
Phoenix 85027 - 36 days
Glendale 85302 - 37 days
Tempe 85282 - 39 days
Mesa 85201 - 40 days
Last year this list was dominated by the West Valley, but in 2017 the Southeast Valley takes 6 of the top 10 slots. I would regard anything under 60 days as being very short of supply, so buyers are at a severe disadvantage in these locations.
What is happening to prices in these ZIP codes? Here are the 3-month moving average prices per sq. ft. compared to a year ago
El Mirage 85335 - $106.77 versus $94.69 - up 12.8%
Mesa 85210 - $124.52 versus $119.77 - up 4.0%
Chandler 85224 - $149.57 versus $144.40 - up 3.6%
Mesa 85202 - $132.61 versus $119.57 - up 10.9%
Youngtown 85363 - $96.81 versus $89.71 - up 7.9%
Chandler 85225 - $144.51 versus $120.25 - up 20.2%
Phoenix 85027 - $137.90 versus $125.04 - up 10.3%
Glendale 85302 - $110.78 versus $99.96 - up 10.8%
Tempe 85282 - $145.85 versus $137.11 - up 6.4%
Mesa 85201 - $127.21 versus $105.83 - up 20.2%